On the association between SARS-COV-2 variants and COVID-19 mortality during the second wave of the pandemic in Europe

Abstract

Objective This study aims at investigating associations between COVID-19 mortality and SARS-COV-2 variants spread during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Methods For 38 European countries, data on numbers of COVID-19 deaths, SARS-COV-2 variants spread through time using Nextstrain classification, demographic and health characteristics were collected. Cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths and height of COVID-19 daily deaths peak during the second wave of the pandemic were considered as outcomes. Pearson correlations and multivariate generalized linear models with selection algorithms were used. Results The average proportion of B.1.1.7 variant was found to be a significant predictor of cumulative COVID-19 deaths within two months before the peak and between 1 January–25 February 2021, as well as of the deaths peak height considering proportions during the second wave and the pre-peak period. The average proportion of EU2 variant (S:477 N) was a significant predictor of cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the pre-peak period. Conclusions Our findings suggest that spread of a new variant of concern B.1.1.7 had a significant impact on mortality during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and that proportions of EU2 and B.1.1.7 variants were associated with increased mortality in the initial phase of that wave.

Keywords

• covid-19
• mortality
• sars-cov-2 variants
• variant of concern
• b.1.1.7 variant