Prognostic nomogram for multiple myeloma early relapse after autologous stem cell transplant in the novel agent era

Abstract

Abstract Background The present study intended to establish a predictive nomogram for early relapse (ER) ( UNL, and response less than very good partial response (VGPR) after ASCT. The calibration curve showed good fitness between the nomogram predictions and the actual observations and the nomogram was further validated by a clinical decision curve. The nomogram's C‐index achieved 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70–0.80), which was higher than that of the Revised International Staging System (R‐ISS) (0.62), ISS (0.59), and Durie–Salmon (DS) staging system (0.52). The discrimination ability of the nomogram in the validation cohort was superior to that of the other staging systems (C‐index: 0.73 vs. R‐ISS (0.54), ISS (0.55), and DS staging system (0.53)). DCA showed the prediction nomogram adds much more clinical utility. Different scores of the nomogram draw a distinction of OS. Conclusion The present nomogram could serve as a feasible and accurate prediction of ER in novel drug induction transplantation‐eligible MM patients, which could help modify the post‐ASCT strategy for patients at high risk of ER.

Keywords

• autologous stem cell transplantation
• early relapse
• multiple myeloma
• nomogram