Expectation of life at old age: revisiting Horiuchi-Coale and reconciling with Mitra

Abstract

Abstract Data quality issues at advanced old age, such as incompleteness of registration of vital events and age misreporting, compromise estimates of the death rates and remaining life expectancy at those ages. Following up on Horiuchi and Coale (Population Studies 36: 317-326, 1982), Mitra (Population Studies 38: 313-319, 1984, Population Studies 39: 511–512, 1985), and Coale (Population Studies 39: 507–509, 1985), we examine the conventional approaches to constructing life tables from data deficient at advanced ages and the two adjustment methods by the mentioned authors. Contrary to earlier reports by Horiuchi, Coale, and Mitra, we show that the two methods are consistent and useful in drastically reducing the estimation errors in life expectancy as compared to the conventional approaches, i.e., the classical open age interval model and extrapolation of the death rates. Our results suggest complementing the classical estimates of life expectancy by adjustments using Horiuchi-Coale, Mitra, or other appropriate methods and avoiding the extrapolation method as a tool for estimating the life expectancy.

Keywords

• Old-age mortality
• Life expectancy
• Life table
• Motality estimation
• Age exaggeration