Viruses (Jul 2020)

Molecular Tracing of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy in the First Three Months of the Epidemic

  • Alessia Lai,
  • Annalisa Bergna,
  • Sara Caucci,
  • Nicola Clementi,
  • Ilaria Vicenti,
  • Filippo Dragoni,
  • Anna Maria Cattelan,
  • Stefano Menzo,
  • Angelo Pan,
  • Annapaola Callegaro,
  • Adriano Tagliabracci,
  • Arnaldo Caruso,
  • Francesca Caccuri,
  • Silvia Ronchiadin,
  • Claudia Balotta,
  • Maurizio Zazzi,
  • Emanuela Vaccher,
  • Massimo Clementi,
  • Massimo Galli,
  • Gianguglielmo Zehender

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/v12080798
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 12, no. 8
p. 798

Abstract

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The aim of this study is the characterization and genomic tracing by phylogenetic analyses of 59 new SARS-CoV-2 Italian isolates obtained from patients attending clinical centres in North and Central Italy until the end of April 2020. All but one of the newly-characterized genomes belonged to the lineage B.1, the most frequently identified in European countries, including Italy. Only a single sequence was found to belong to lineage B. A mean of 6 nucleotide substitutions per viral genome was observed, without significant differences between synonymous and non-synonymous mutations, indicating genetic drift as a major source for virus evolution. tMRCA estimation confirmed the probable origin of the epidemic between the end of January and the beginning of February with a rapid increase in the number of infections between the end of February and mid-March. Since early February, an effective reproduction number (Re) greater than 1 was estimated, which then increased reaching the peak of 2.3 in early March, confirming the circulation of the virus before the first COVID-19 cases were documented. Continuous use of state-of-the-art methods for molecular surveillance is warranted to trace virus circulation and evolution and inform effective prevention and containment of future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.

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