Vulnerability Assessment in Technology-Based Systems: A Case Study in Tehran Gas Supply Network

Abstract

Background and Objective: A variety of natural, man-made, and technological hazards threaten the resilience of a system and make it vulnerable. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the vulnerability of the gas distribution network in the city of Tehran. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed in town board stations (TBSs) in one of the gas distribution areas of Tehran during 2019-2020. This study was conducted based on the approach of identifying hazard and threat centers and vulnerability assessment. The vulnerability assessment was performed using a three-dimensional matrix consisting of three factors, including the probability of occurrence, the severity of the damage, and the extent of preparedness for the threat. Results: In total, six hazard or threat sources were identified in the studied TBSs, including insulating joints, shut-off valves, station pipelines, sensors, regulators, and filters. The vulnerability caused by these six sources was estimated at 36, 30, 120, 112, 40, and 140, respectively. Based on the results, insulating joints, shut-off valves, and regulators presented threats of level two (medium), and station pipelines, sensors, and filters were level three threats (severe). The vulnerability index was in the range of 101-215. Conclusion: The results indicated that the resilience of TBSs in this area are threatened by six major sources. Furthermore, the results of the vulnerability assessment of these TBSs revealed that the resilience to these threats is relatively low. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the reduction of vulnerability in this area of the gas distribution network.

Keywords

• gas distribution network
• resilience
• town board stations
• vulnerability assessment