Analyzing Bullwhip Effect in Supply Networks under Exogenous Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper explains a model for analyzing and measuring the propagation of order amplifications (i.e. bullwhip effect) for a single-product supply network topology considering exogenous uncertainty and linear and time-invariant inventory management policies for network entities. The stream of orders placed by each entity of the network is characterized assuming customer demand is ergodic. In fact, we propose an exact formula in order to measure the bullwhip effect in the addressed supply network topology considering the system in Markovian chain framework and presenting a matrix of network member relationships and relevant order sequences. The formula turns out using a mathematical method called frequency domain analysis. The major contribution of this paper is analyzing the bullwhip effect considering exogenous uncertainty in supply networks and using the Fourier transform in order to simplify the relevant calculations. We present a number of numerical examples to assess the analytical results accuracy in quantifying the bullwhip effect.

Keywords

• supply chain management
• inventory
• bullwhip effect
• exogenous uncertainty
• frequency domain analysis