Heliyon (Jul 2024)
The statistical analysis based on GTD terrorist incident record data
Abstract
Terrorism refers to the claims and acts that create social panic, endanger public security, infringe upon persons and property, or threaten state organs and organizations to achieve political and ideological goals through violence, sabotage, intimidation and other means. According to the survey, 92 % of the world's countries have been subjected to terrorist attacks to varying degrees, involving South America, the Middle East and North Africa. Since 1970, there have been about 200,000 terrorist incidents worldwide. Global terrorist attacks have a wide range of targets, involving nearly 20 groups, resulting in up to 280,000 deaths and 360,000 injuries. Based on the GTD database, this paper selects the relevant data from 1998 to 2017, and uses the factor analysis model to establish the evaluation index system of terrorist attack harm from the perspective of terrorist attack harm. At the same time, GIS is used for quantitative analysis of the data, and time series model is used for correlation prediction. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation model of terrorist attacks has objectively and accurately evaluated the terrorist attacks in the past 20 years, among which 9/11 incident has the highest degree of harm, followed by the Salam Embassy bombing. The ranking of the harmfulness of the incident is basically consistent with the reports of mainstream media at home and abroad. From the perspective of the global spatial scope of terrorist attacks, terrorist attacks are shifting from North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula to the eastern front, and the Middle East has continued to gather, and the situation of terrorist attacks in the Middle East is not optimistic. At present and for some time to come, international terrorism will remain at a high level, and terrorist attacks will remain concentrated in the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula.
