Forecasting Agricultural Area Using Nerlovian Model in Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract

In this article, we develop the Nerlove models that give the area of cacao and cashew nuts in terms of the area, the price and the rainfall. These models are estimated using the methods of ordinary least square and likelihood maximum and are used to analyze the link in a short time between the agricultural determinants. The results showed that the anticipation elasticity had an effect on the price practiced and forecast model. In a short time, the price delayed by one year, and the area delayed by one and two years, had decreasing returns to scale for the current area.

Keywords

• price elasticity
• Nerlove model
• econometric modeling
• econometric forecasting