KURU SOĞAN ÜRETİMİ VE FİYAT İLİŞKİSİNİN ARDL SINIR TESTİ VE ALMON MODELİ İLE TESPİT EDİLMESİ: ÖRÜMCEK AĞI TEOREMİ

Abstract

In this study, using annual data from 1980-2017 year for Turkey the appropriateness of cobweb theorem for dry onion were investigated. in accordance with this purpose, by applying ARDL boundary test approach between long term relationship onion production and price was determined. To estimate a real cointegration relationship, first of all, ADF, PP, KPSS unit root test, which do not take into account structural breaks, and Zivot and Andrews unit root test, Which takes structural break into account, were applied. According to the ARDL limit test results, current period price level does not have influence on production. However, previous two periods and the 2002 period when structural break occourred have a significant effect on production. According to the finding obtained from the Almon model, price level in past two period have a positive effect in descending proportion on production. Unlike studies in the literatüre, the effect of economic recession on agricultural production was tried to be determined with the ARDL model applied considering the period in which the structural break occurred.

Keywords

• ardl model
• almon modeli
• cobweb theorem.