Hybrid machine learning hydrological model for flood forecast purpose

Abstract

Machine learning-based data-driven models have achieved great success since their invention. Nowadays, the artificial neural network (ANN)-based machine learning methods have made great progress than ever before, such as the deep learning and reinforcement learning, etc. In this study, we coupled the ANN with the K-nearest neighbor method to propose a novel hybrid machine learning (HML) hydrological model for flood forecast purpose. The advantage of the proposed model over traditional neural network models is that it can predict discharge continuously without accuracy loss owed to its specially designed model structure. In order to overcome the local minimum issue of the traditional neural network training, a genetic algorithm and Levenberg–Marquardt-based multi-objective training method was also proposed. Real-world applications of the HML hydrological model indicated its satisfactory performance and reliable stability, which enlightened the possibility of further applications of the HML hydrological model in flood forecast problems.

Keywords

• hybrid machine learning
• hydrological model
• flood forecast
• artificial neural network
• k-nearest neighbor method