Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Efficiency of Kopeh Dagh Conserved Area (Case study: Persian Gazella)

Abstract

Persian Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa subgutturosa) is one of the most important herbivores of the steppes of Iran, which is found in different plains and desert areas. Today, the distribution of this species is limited to special areas, which has caused it to be placed in the Vulnerable Class (VU) of the IUCN Red List. In this condition, the phenomenon of climate change as one of the biggest challenges of the current century has affected the habitat conditions and the range of distribution of large mammals such as Persian Gazelle and caused it to change. This research aimed to assess climate change impacts on the efficiency of protected areas and to model the distribution of Persian Gazella. In order to predict the distribution of this species in current and future conditions, the weighted Mahalanobis modeling approach was used. Based on the model used, about 31% of the studied area was identified as a suitable habitat at the present. The overlap between protected areas and suitable habitats was 16%. The research findings showed that by 2070, under the pessimistic scenario of the MRI-ESM2-0 model, 2% of the suitable habitat of the Gazella species will be lost.

Keywords

• habitat changes
• large mammals
• persian gazelle
• suitable habitat
• weighted mahalanobis modeling