Artificial Neural Network Model to Prediction of Eutrophication and Microcystis Aeruginosa Bloom

Abstract

Maekuang reservoir is one of the water resources which provides water supply, livestock, and recreational in Chiangmai city, Thailand. The water quality and Microcystis aeruginosa are a severe problem in many reservoirs. M. aeruginosa is the most widespread toxic cyanobacteria in Thailand. Difficulty prediction for planning protects Maekuang reservoirs, the artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is a powerful tool that can be used to machine learning and prediction by observation data. ANN is able to learn from previous data and has been used to predict the value in the future. ANN consists of three layers as input, hidden, and output layer. Water quality data is collected biweekly at Maekuang reservoir (1999-2000). Input data for training, including nutrients (ammonium, nitrate, and phosphorus), Secchi depth, BOD, temperature, conductivity, pH, and output data for testing as Chlorophyll a and M. aeruginosa cells. The model was evaluated using four performances, namely; mean squared error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), sum of square error (SSE), and percentage error. It was found that the model prediction agreed with experimental data. C01-C08 scenarios focused on M. aeruginosa bloom prediction, and ANN tested for prediction of Chlorophyll a bloom shown on M01-M09 scenarios. The findings showed, this model has been validated for prediction of Chlorophyll a and shows strong agreement for nitrate, Log cell, and Chlorophyll a. Results indicate that the ANN can be predicted eutrophication indicators during the summer season, and ANN has efficient for providing the new data set and predict the behavior of M. aeruginosa bloom process.

Keywords

• artificial neural network model
• eutrophication
• toxic cyanobacteria
• microcystis aeruginosa.