Prefectures vulnerable to water scarcity are not evenly distributed across China

Abstract

Abstract Water scarcity has become a significant constraint to sustainable development. While the water scarcity has been widely assessed, its social impacts are infrequently evaluated. Here, we developed a framework to integrate the water scarcity and climate sensitivity to examine social vulnerability at the prefecture level across China. Results showed that 41% of the 301 prefectures were highly water stressed and 30% were highly sensitive to changing climate. We identified 44 hotspot prefectures using a combination of high water scarcity and climate sensitivity. We mapped the gradient in social vulnerability to water stress and climate sensitivity in these 44 prefectures and found that prefectures with ‘very high’ social vulnerability were primarily distributed in Central and Southwest China. These ‘very high’ vulnerable prefectures are home to more than 58 million people. The consideration of both water scarcity and climate sensitivity across management units has potential to formulate policies regarding water resources management.