Uncertainty Analysis of Factors Influencing Stimulated Fracture Volume in Layered Formation

Abstract

Hydraulic fracture dimension is one of the key parameters affecting stimulated porous media. In actual fracturing, plentiful uncertain parameters increase the difficulty of fracture dimension prediction, resulting in the difficulty in the monitoring of reservoir productivity. In this paper, we established a three-dimensional model to analyze the key factors on the stimulated reservoir volume (SRV), with the response surface method (RSM). Considering the rock properties and fracturing parameters, we established a multivariate quadratic prediction equation. Simulation results show that the interactions of injection rate (Q), Young’s modulus (E) and permeability coefficient (K), and Poisson’s ratio (μ) play a relatively significant role on SRV. The reservoir with a high Young’s modulus typically generates high pressure, leading to longer fractures and larger SRV. SRV reaches the maximum value when E1 and E2 are high. SRV is negatively correlated with K1. Moreover, maintaining a high injection rate in this layered formation with high E1 and E2, relatively low K1, and μ1 at about 0.25 would be beneficial to form a larger SRV. These results offer new perceptions on the optimization of SRV, helping to improve the productivity in hydraulic fracturing.

Keywords

• fluid-driven fractures
• reservoir modeling
• finite element method
• uncertainty analysis