Risk identification and quantitative assessment method of offshore platform equipment

Abstract

Equipment failure risk identification and risk assessment are essential part of offshore platform equipment integrity management. Realizing the risk identification and quantitative assessment of offshore platform equipment and failure modes will help to formulate more reasonable risk management measures. However, the previous methods are not enough to support precise risk assessment of offshore platform equipment. Therefore, this paper proposes a new quantitative risk assessment method based on fuzzy set theory, gray correlation analysis and fuzzy Borda method. This paper creatively proposed the approach, which integrates the solid expressive ability of the fuzzy set theory to vagueness and uncertainty information, the strong point of GRA method in studying the dependence of failure modes, and the advantage of FBM for aggregating experts’ diversity evaluations. Based on the above integrated approach, the proposed risk assessment model can favorably capture and aggregate diversity evaluations of FMECA team members. In addition, the effectiveness of this method is verified by the risk assessment of offshore platform equipment. The new method solves the problem existing in the quantitative risk assessment of multiple risks and multiple FMECA reports. This comprehensive quantitative risk assessment method can screen out high-risk failure modes and essential components in a system, and provide a reference for maintenance decision-making of complex industrial systems. This paper is conducive to promote the application of PHM, RCM and AIM in high-risk industries such as oil and gas production.

Keywords

• FMECA
• Prognostics and health management
• Quantitative risk assessment
• Fuzzy Borda method
• Asset integrity management