Evaluating the performance of the Anwaralardh photovoltaic power generation plant in Jordan: Comparative analysis using artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression modeling

Abstract

The global energy demand is rising, driven by population growth, economic development, and industrialization. Shifting towards renewable energy, like solar energy, is gaining momentum worldwide because of ecological concerns and resource depletion. This paper aims to utilize Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling techniques to evaluate the productivity of 11 MW photovoltaic (PV) solar power plant currently operational in Jordan. The case study reveals that both models can be used to predict the daily, monthly, and yearly average power produced and system efficiency with reasonable accuracy. The ANN model exhibited promising results, where the best value for the coefficient of determination (R2) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for training were 95.85% and 0.59%, respectively. However, R2 was 93.7%, and MAPE was 1.27% for validation tests. All these results were achieved using a 7-6-1 model, with a sample ratio of 1:1 for the data allocated in training and validation. When using multiple linear regression, the R2 and standard error values were 93.42% and 0.17%. On the other hand, the results showed that the yearly output power for actual and predicted by both models over the year was 24,399 MWh, 24,538 MWh, and 24,401 MWh, respectively. This research showed valuable results in the monthly output power for solar cells at the Anwaralardh PV power system project, contributing to a better understanding of solar energy generation in arid desert climates and emphasizing the potential of solar power plants to play a crucial role in achieving SDG 7 objectives.

Keywords

• artificial neural networks
• photovoltaic solar power plant
• multiple linear regression
• solar energy