Forecast for the dynamics of forests in Krasnoyarsk Krai

Abstract

Dynamics of the forest ecosystems connects closely with the natural and anthropogenic changes (succession processes, forest fires, windfalls, forest insects, forest diseases, forest harvesting, reforestation, the infrastructure development associated and not associated with forestry and so forth). Authors do not consider the up-to-day problem of global warming on the Earth, as opinions of scientists are controversial. Retrospective analysis of forest dynamics of the Krasnoyarsk Territory for the last 50 years has allowed to assess the impact of these changes on condition of forests. The univocal conclusion of deterioration of forest quality has been drawn. Area of coniferous forests has decreased by 9 %, including the 25 % reduction of mature and overmature forest stands. To forecast forest dynamics, modelling of natural and anthropogenic processes in the forest ecosystems has been applied, taking into account that the existing system of measures for reforestation and tending care of forest actually does not affect dynamics of the forests. The provision about increase in forest harvesting volume to 37.6 million м3 of the Development Strategy of the Krasnoyarsk Forest Industrial Complex has been used for forecasting. It has been proved that such scale of forest harvesting will inevitably lead to the over-cutting of ecological and economic accessible allowable cut that will negatively affect the forest condition in 50 years. Our forecast of forest dynamics of the Krasnoyarsk Territory for the next 50 years has showed that negative changes will continue at the same pace under the current extensive form of forest management. What is more, the maximum decrease of forest area might be in pine forests (32.9 %) with the significant increase of broadleaves forests – 22.7 %. To improve the situation in the Russian forest sector, a radical change in the system of forest management is needed.

Keywords

• forest complex
• development strategy
• forecast for forest dynamics
• forestry
• forest management