The Rothman Index predicts unplanned readmissions to intensive care associated with increased mortality and hospital length of stay: a propensity-matched cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background Patients with unplanned readmissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) are at high risk of preventable adverse events. The Rothman Index represents an objective real-time grading system of a patient’s clinical condition and a predictive tool of clinical deterioration over time. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that the Rothman Index represents a sensitive predictor of unanticipated ICU readmissions. Methods A retrospective propensity-matched cohort study was performed at a tertiary referral academic medical center in the United States from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Inclusion criteria were adult patients admitted to an ICU and readmitted within seven days of transfer to a lower level of care. The control group consisted of patients who were downgraded from ICU without a subsequent readmission. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice for end-of-life care. Secondary outcome measures were overall hospital length of stay, ICU length of stay, and 30-day readmission rates. Propensity matching was used to control for differences between the study cohorts. Regression analyses were performed to determine independent risk factors of an unplanned readmission to ICU. Results A total of 5,261 ICU patients met the inclusion criteria, of which 212 patients (4%) had an unanticipated readmission to the ICU within 7 days. The study cohort and control group were stratified by propensity matching into equal group sizes of n = 181. Lower Rothman Index scores (reflecting higher physiologic acuity) at the time of downgrade from the ICU were significantly associated with an unplanned readmission to the ICU (p < 0.0001). Patients readmitted to ICU had a lower mean Rothman Index score (p < 0.0001) and significantly increased rates of mortality (19.3% vs. 2.2%, p < 0.0001) and discharge to hospice (14.4% vs. 6.1%, p = 0.0073) compared to the control group of patients without ICU readmission. The overall length of ICU stay (mean 8.0 vs. 2.2 days, p < 0.0001) and total length of hospital stay (mean 15.8 vs. 7.3 days, p < 0.0001) were significantly increased in patients readmitted to ICU, compared to the control group. Conclusion The Rothman Index represents a sensitive predictor of unanticipated readmissions to ICU, associated with a significantly increased mortality and overall ICU and hospital length of stay. The Rothman Index should be considered as a real-time objective measure for prediction of a safe downgrade from ICU to a lower level of care.

Keywords

• Rothman Index
• Predictive analytics
• ICU readmission
• Mortality
• Hospital length of stay
• Patient safety