Uncertainty in estimating the number of contributors from simulated DNA mixture profiles, with and without allele dropout, from Chinese, Malay, Indian, and Caucasian ethnic populations

Abstract

Abstract Determining the number of contributors (NOC) accurately in a forensic DNA mixture profile can be challenging. To address this issue, there have been various studies that examined the uncertainty in estimating the NOC in a DNA mixture profile. However, the focus of these studies lies primarily on dominant populations residing within Europe and North America. Thus, there is limited representation of Asian populations in these studies. Further, the effects of allele dropout on the NOC estimation has not been explored. As such, this study assesses the uncertainty of NOC in simulated DNA mixture profiles of Chinese, Malay, and Indian populations, which are the predominant ethnic populations in Asia. The Caucasian ethnic population was also included to provide a basis of comparison with other similar studies. Our results showed that without considering allele dropout, the NOC from DNA mixture profiles derived from up to four contributors of the same ethnic population could be estimated with confidence in the Chinese, Malay, Indian and Caucasian populations. The same results can be observed on DNA mixture profiles originating from a combination of differing ethnic populations. The inclusion of an overall 30% allele dropout rate increased the probability (risk) of underestimating the NOC in a DNA mixture profile; even a 3-person DNA mixture profile has a > 99% risk of underestimating the NOC as two or fewer contributors. However, such risks could be mitigated when the highly polymorphic SE33 locus was included in the dataset. Lastly there was a negligible level of risk in misinterpreting the NOC in a mixture profile as deriving from a single source profile. In summary, our studies showcased novel results representative of the Chinese, Malay, and Indian ethnic populations when examining the uncertainty in NOC estimation in a DNA mixture profile. Our results would be useful in the estimation of NOC in a DNA mixture profile in the Asian context.