Risk prediction and analysis of gallbladder polyps with deep neural network

Abstract

AbstractThe aim of this study is to analyze the risk factors associated with the development of adenomatous and malignant polyps in the gallbladder. Adenomatous polyps of the gallbladder are considered precancerous and have a high likelihood of progressing into malignancy. Preoperatively, distinguishing between benign gallbladder polyps, adenomatous polyps, and malignant polyps is challenging. Therefore, the objective is to develop a neural network model that utilizes these risk factors to accurately predict the nature of polyps. This predictive model can be employed to differentiate the nature of polyps before surgery, enhancing diagnostic accuracy. A retrospective study was done on patients who had cholecystectomy surgeries at the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery of the Second People’s Hospital of Shenzhen between January 2017 and December 2022. The patients’ clinical characteristics, lab results, and ultrasonographic indices were examined. Using risk variables for the growth of adenomatous and malignant polyps in the gallbladder, a neural network model for predicting the kind of polyps will be created. A normalized confusion matrix, PR, and ROC curve were used to evaluate the performance of the model. In this comprehensive study, we meticulously analyzed a total of 287 cases of benign gallbladder polyps, 15 cases of adenomatous polyps, and 27 cases of malignant polyps. The data analysis revealed several significant findings. Specifically, hepatitis B core antibody (95% CI −0.237 to 0.061, p < 0.001), number of polyps (95% CI −0.214 to −0.052, p = 0.001), polyp size (95% CI 0.038 to 0.051, p < 0.001), wall thickness (95% CI 0.042 to 0.081, p < 0.001), and gallbladder size (95% CI 0.185 to 0.367, p < 0.001) emerged as independent predictors for gallbladder adenomatous polyps and malignant polyps. Based on these significant findings, we developed a predictive classification model for gallbladder polyps, represented as follows, Predictive classification model for GBPs = −0.149 * core antibody − 0.033 * number of polyps + 0.045 * polyp size + 0.061 * wall thickness + 0.276 * gallbladder size − 4.313. To assess the predictive efficiency of the model, we employed precision-recall (PR) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction model was 0.945 and 0.930, respectively, indicating excellent predictive capability. We determined that a polyp size of 10 mm served as the optimal cutoff value for diagnosing gallbladder adenoma, with a sensitivity of 81.5% and specificity of 60.0%. For the diagnosis of gallbladder cancer, the sensitivity and specificity were 81.5% and 92.5%, respectively. These findings highlight the potential of our predictive model and provide valuable insights into accurate diagnosis and risk assessment for gallbladder polyps. We identified several risk factors associated with the development of adenomatous and malignant polyps in the gallbladder, including hepatitis B core antibodies, polyp number, polyp size, wall thickness, and gallbladder size. To address the need for accurate prediction, we introduced a novel neural network learning algorithm. This algorithm utilizes the aforementioned risk factors to predict the nature of gallbladder polyps. By accurately identifying the nature of these polyps, our model can assist patients in making informed decisions regarding their treatment and management strategies. This innovative approach aims to improve patient outcomes and enhance the overall effectiveness of care.

Keywords

• Gallbladder polyps
• risk prediction and analysis
• predictive classification model
• deep neural network