Applying Bayesian Models to Reduce Computational Requirements of Wildfire Sensitivity Analyses

Abstract

Scenario analysis and improved decision-making for wildfires often require a large number of simulations to be run on state-of-the-art modeling systems, which can be both computationally expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose using a Bayesian model for estimating the impacts of wildfires using observations and prior expert information. This approach allows us to benefit from rich datasets of observations and expert knowledge on fire impacts to investigate the influence of different priors to determine the best model. Additionally, we use the values predicted by the model to assess the sensitivity of each input factor, which can help identify conditions contributing to dangerous wildfires and enable fire scenario analysis in a timely manner. Our results demonstrate that using a Bayesian model can significantly reduce the resources and time required by current wildfire modeling systems by up to a factor of two while still providing a close approximation to true results.

Keywords

• Bayesian inference
• wildfire modeling
• model fitting
• sensitivity analysis
• scenario analysis