Development and Optimization of Maintenance Using the Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

Maintenance plan efficacy traditionally prioritizes long-term predicted maintenance cost rates, emphasizing performance-centric approaches. However, such criteria often neglect the fluctuation in maintenance costs over renewal cycles, posing challenges from a risk management perspective. This study challenges conventional solutions by integrating both performance and robustness considerations to offer more suitable maintenance options. The study evaluates two representative maintenance approaches: a block replacement strategy and a periodic inspection and replacement strategy. It introduces novel metrics to assess these approaches, including long-term expected maintenance cost rate as a performance metric and variance of maintenance cost per renewal cycle as a robustness metric. Mathematical models based on the homogeneous Gamma degradation process and probability theory are employed to quantify these strategies. Comparative analysis reveals that while higher-performing strategies may demonstrate cost efficiency over the long term, they also entail greater risk due to potential cost variability across renewal cycles. The study underscores the necessity for a comprehensive evaluation that balances performance and resilience in maintenance decision-making. By leveraging the Monte Carlo Method, this research offers a critical appraisal of maintenance strategies, aiming to enhance decision-making frameworks with insights that integrate performance and robustness considerations.

Keywords

• maintenance planning
• robustness
• block replacement strategy
• periodic inspection and replacement strategy
• monte carlo method.