Discrete and Continuous Models and Applied Computational Science (Oct 2024)

Statistical causality analysis

  • Alexander A. Grusho,
  • Nikolai A. Grusho,
  • Michael I. Zabezhailo,
  • Konstantin E. Samouylov,
  • Elena E. Timonina

DOI
https://doi.org/10.22363/2658-4670-2024-32-2-213-221
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 32, no. 2
pp. 213 – 221

Abstract

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The problem of identifying deterministic cause-and-effect relationships, initially hidden in accumulated empirical data, is discussed. Statistical methods were used to identify such relationships. A simple mathematical model of cause-and-effect relationships is proposed, in the framework of which several models of causal dependencies in data are described - for the simplest relationship between cause and effect, for many effects of one cause, as well as for chains of cause-and-effect relationships (so-called transitive causes). Estimates are formulated that allow using the de Moivre-Laplace theorem to determine the parameters of causal dependencies linking events in a polynomial scheme trials. The statements about the unambiguous identification of causeand-effect dependencies that are reconstructed from accumulated data are proved. The possibilities of using such data analysis schemes in medical diagnostics and cybersecurity tasks are discussed.

Keywords