A novel fractional-order stochastic epidemic model to analyze the role of media awareness in the spread of conjunctivitis

Abstract

This study introduces a novel fractional-order stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of conjunctivitis, a prevalent ocular infection, while accounting for the influence of media awareness on disease transmission. The model incorporates fractional derivatives to capture memory effects and non-local interactions inherent in epidemic processes, allowing for a more accurate representation of disease dynamics. The stability analysis of equilibrium points is carried out based on the basic reproduction number ℛ0 and fractional-order α. Further, the Hopf bifurcation phenomenon is discussed in this paper. Stochasticity accounts for the randomness in transmission events. The findings of this study provide insights into the complex interrelationship between disease dynamics and media influence, shedding light on the role of public awareness in mitigating or exacerbating conjunctivitis outbreaks. The implications of this work extend to public health policy formulation, highlighting the importance of targeted communication strategies in controlling and preventing the spread of conjunctivitis and similar infectious diseases.

Keywords

• Fractional-order stochastic model
• Atangana–Baleanu
• Conjunctivitis
• Reproduction number
• Stochastic
• Stability analysis