Evolution Characteristics and Influence Factor of World Oil-Bearing Crops Trade Network

Abstract

Based on the data on international oil-bearing crop trade published by UN Comtrade from 2011 to 2020, this study adopted the complex network analysis method to investigate the evolution characteristics of the world oil crop trade network and explored the influence factor of the oil crop trade network through the Quadratic Assignment Procedure model. The results indicate that the oil trade network has good connectivity and small world attributes, but the overall network density and reciprocity coefficient are relatively low, and the links between the nodes in the network need to be strengthened. The international oil crop export market is highly concentrated, and the import market is relatively scattered. Brazil's oil crop exports have gradually increased, eroding the market share of the United States and shifting the trade focus to developing economies led by Brazil. The oil crop trade network has a "core- marginal" circle structure. The United States, Brazil, and Argentina are the main core countries, displaying a "tripartite" trend in oil crop trade and having a strong influence on other countries. Economic scale difference, difference in per capita income, per capita cultivated land area difference, and land bordering have a significant positive impact, and institutional distance has a significant negative impact on the unauthorized network and weighted trade network of oil crop trade. There is a negative correlation between the difference in the labor force and the growth of trade volume, and the degree of impact is gradually weakened. Geographical distance has an opposite effect on oil crop trade relations and trade flows. It is negatively correlated with the oil crop trade in the unauthorized network, but positively correlated with the weighted network. China is a major importer and consumer of oil crops, and the import trade has developed rapidly. However, the import sources are excessively concentrated, the import potential risk is large, the position in the trade network is not high, the closeness and betweenness centrality indicators rank low, and its influence on the international oil market does not match its position as a major trading country. In this regard, China should adjust the country structure of oil crop imports, build a supply network, deepen trade cooperation and interest convergence, and ensure the safety of oil crop imports.

Keywords

• trade in oil crops
• trade network
• complex network
• qap model
• influence factor