Diversity, Conflict and Growth: Theory and Evidence

Abstract

This article re-examines recent studies that link different forms of social diversity—ethnic polarization and fractionalization—to underdevelopment and an increased risk of civil war. We review theoretical arguments in favor of a connection between diversity and these social outcomes and discuss the inter-linkage between economic growth and internal conflict in situations of extreme diversity. Our analysis confirms that the relationship between ethnic polarization and civil war is ambiguous and depends on the use of civil war incidence or civil war onset as an outcome variable. Furthermore, fractionalization rather than polarization seems to be negatively related to economic growth.

Keywords

• civil war
• development
• polarization
• fractionalization