Evaluation of methods of estimating time‐optimal flight routes in a changing climate

Abstract

Abstract An emergent consequence of climate change is its potential impacts on transatlantic flight routes and durations, with studies suggesting that future optimal paths will likely lead to decreased (increased) eastbound (westbound) journey times. However, these earlier works all rely on a class of flight planning algorithms (based on the so‐called ‘shooting method’) that are fundamentally different to those typically used by the aviation industry (based on the so‐called ‘network method’). To help resolve any ambiguities associated with these differences and better align both the academic and operational communities, we have therefore conducted an evaluation of methods of estimating time‐optimal flight routes to relate the result obtained from the shooting method with the result obtained from the network method, using identical data from an ensemble of eight different climate models included within the CMIP5 project. Our findings suggest that, contrary to the existing literature, journey times will likely be shorter, irrespective of direction of travel and season, although the magnitude of this difference is negligible given the typical duration of transatlantic flights. Trajectory prediction (TP) results are largely dependent on the characteristics of the ensemble, their method of generation, the projected climate scenario and the temporal periods considered. Importantly, we conclude the choice of TP models is not a crucial factor in assessing the impact of climate change on flight durations—as long as this sample size (i.e., number of trajectories used in deriving statistics) is large.

Keywords

• aviation
• climate change
• climate change impacts
• ensemble
• global impact study