POSSIBILITIES OF MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION OF ACUTE EROSIVE-ULCERATIVE LESIONS OF UPPER PARTS OF GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT IN PATIENTS WITH SEVERE BURNS

Abstract

OBJECTIVE. The authors created an effective system of prediction of acute erosive-ulcerative lesions of the stomach and duodenum in victims with extensive burns. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The patients (85) were divided into two groups. The first group included 45 patients (53 %) with erosive ulcerative lesions of the stomach and duodenum which developed during 14 days after injury. The second group numbered 40 patients (47 %) without complications. The clinical, laboratory and instrumental methods of investigations were applied. RESULTS. According to data analysis of patient’s examination, the scale of assessment of sign rates was developed. The amount of rates corresponded to the index of prediction (IP). The values of IP were calculated at the interval from -15 to +15 units. The high possibility (85 %) of development of acute erosive and ulcerative lesions of the stomach and duodenum could be expected in cases when IP was about +15 units. CONCLUSIONS. The developed predictive scale of erosive-ulcerative complications of gastrointestinal tract appeared to be highly reliable and allowed doctors to use preventive measures on time.

Keywords

• severe burns
• erosive-ulcerative lesions
• stomach
• duodenum
• mathematical modeling
• index of prediction