Analysis of Changes in Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Drought across South Korea

Abstract

Since the climatic features of South Korea are highly complex and time variable, spatio-temporal-based drought frequency analysis is a prerequisite for drought risk management. The spatial extent of drought risk analysis in a bivariate framework has scarcely been applied in South Korea before. In this study, the spatio-temporal changes in drought events are investigated at 55 stations across South Korea during 1980–2015. A variety of probability distributions and copulas are applied, and the best fitted is selected on the basis the goodness of fit. The spatial distributions of primary and secondary return periods showed a high risk of drought due to the unusual precipitation pattern in the western coast areas and at Uljin station and a relative low risk of drought in the northwestern portion and surrounding areas of Yeongju, Uiseong, Boeun and Daejeon stations. Overall, the spatial distribution patterns of primary and secondary (Kendall) return periods are similar. However, their applicability changes according to the type of drought risk to be considered. The spatio-temporal quantification of the return period can be used for establishing the proper water demand and supply system and helps to overcome the challenges faced in the hydrometeorological regulations of reservoirs in the southwest coast.

Keywords

• spatio-temporal
• drought frequency analysis
• drought variables
• return period
• drought risk
• copulas