Climatic variability and temperature and rainfall patterns in Murcia (1863-2017). Climate analysis techniques in the context of global change

Abstract

Climate studies with a high space and time resolution are a key factor for analysing climate change projections. It is important to have a long time series and perform a robust statistical treatment of the data. The city of Murcia has one of the longest and best-preserved temperature and rainfall data series in Spain (1863-2017). It represents a very valuable item for understanding climatic variability in a region of special climatic sensitivity. In this work, we apply techniques of completion and detection of extreme data, and then make an extensive statistical study of trends, breaking points, and cycles. Results show a significant warming process in Murcia that started in the 1960s. Rainfall trends are more variable and less defined; even so, there is a significant tendency towards less rain. The climatic characterisation of successive periods in the last 30 years confirms these patterns and shows how the climate in Murcia has changed since the last third of the 19th century (when the Murcia climate was typically Mediterranean with hot dry summers). The local climate now presents the typical features of a Mediterranean semi-arid climate. This climatic change reveals a rapid process of climatic alteration, and paradoxically invites us to reconsider the number of years necessary to make a correct climate characterisation.

Keywords

• tendencias climáticas
• puntos de ruptura
• análisis espectral
• análisis climático
• sureste de la península ibérica.