Rodent Host Abundance and Climate Variability as Predictors of Tickborne Disease Risk 1 Year in Advance

Abstract

Using long-term data on incidences of Lyme disease and tickborne encephalitis, we showed that the dynamics of both diseases in central Europe are predictable from rodent host densities and climate indices. Our approach offers a simple and effective tool to predict a tickborne disease risk 1 year in advance.

Keywords

• climate variability
• common vole
• Ixodes ricinus
• Lyme disease
• Microtus arvalis
• tickborne encephalitis