Higher-order statistics based multifractal predictability measures for anisotropic turbulence and the theoretical limits of aviation weather forecasting

Abstract

Abstract Theoretical predictability measures of turbulent atmospheric flows are essential in estimating how realistic the current storm-scale strategic forecast skill expectations are. Atmospheric predictability studies in the past have usually neglected intermittency and anisotropy, which are typical features of atmospheric flows, rendering their application to the storm-scale weather regime ineffective. Furthermore, these studies are frequently limited to second-order statistical measures, which do not contain information about the rarer, more severe, and, therefore, more important (from a forecasting and mitigation perspective) weather events. Here we overcome these rather severe limitations by proposing an analytical expression for the theoretical predictability limits of anisotropic multifractal fields based on higher-order autocorrelation functions. The predictability limits are dependent on the order of statistical moment (q) and are smaller for larger q. Since higher-order statistical measures take into account rarer events, such more extreme phenomena are less predictable. While spatial anisotropy of the fields seems to increase their predictability limits (making them larger than the commonly expected eddy turnover times), the ratio of anisotropic to isotropic predictability limits is independent of q. Our results indicate that reliable storm-scale weather forecasting with around 3 to 5 hours lead time is theoretically possible.