Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment: Lower Zab River Basin (Iraq and Iran)

Abstract

Selecting appropriate climate change scenarios is crucial, as it influences the outcomes of climate change impact studies. Several storylines could be used to investigate the sensitivity of water resource schemes to weather variability and improve policymakers’ adaptation strategies. This study proposes a comprehensive and generic methodology for assessing the future climate change impact on semi-arid and arid zones at the basin scale by comparing delta perturbation scenarios to the outcomes of seven collections of GCMs (general circulation models). The findings indicate that the two scenarios predicted nearly identical declines in average reservoir discharges over a monthly timescale. Consequently, their maximum values are almost similar. The projected decrease in the streamflow for the period 2080–2099 is approximately 48%—the same as the ratio from the delta perturbation scenario of Future16 (a 30% precipitation decrease and a 30% potential evapotranspiration increase). Furthermore, delta perturbation scenarios allow the impacts of model sensitivity to climate change to be clearly identified in relation to GCM scenarios. Delta perturbation scenarios allow for an extensive collection of possible climate changes at the regional scale. In addition, delta perturbation scenarios are simpler to create and use; therefore, they might complement GCM scenarios.

Keywords

• climate scenario
• general circulation model
• hydro-climatic variable prediction
• Lesser Zab River Basin
• reservoir performance