Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China
Xu Hao,
Mohamed Ali Saafi,
Shiqi Ou,
Xin He,
Yilan Jiang,
Zhenhong Lin,
Rujie Yu,
Yu Gan,
Zifeng Lu
Affiliations
Xu Hao
School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China
Mohamed Ali Saafi
Aramco Americas: Aramco Research Center – Detroit, Novi, MI, USA
Shiqi Ou
School of Future Technology, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511442, China; Pazhou Lab, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510335, China; Corresponding author
Xin He
Aramco Americas: Aramco Research Center – Detroit, Novi, MI, USA
Yilan Jiang
Department of Industrial and Enterprise System Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
Zhenhong Lin
School of Future Technology, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511442, China
Rujie Yu
Automotive Data Center, China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Dongli District, Tianjin, China
Yu Gan
Energy Systems Division Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, USA
Zifeng Lu
Energy Systems Division Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, USA
Summary: China’s progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty decarbonization pathways, combining the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credit model and the China-Fleet model. We find that the 2060 zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal for LDVs is achievable via electrification if the battery pack cost is under CNY483/kWh by 2050. However, an extra of CNY8.86 trillion internal subsidies is needed under pessimistic battery cost scenarios (CNY759/kWh in 2050) to eliminate 246 million tonnes of CO2-eq by 2050 ensuring over 80% market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2050. Moreover, the promotion of fuel cell electric vehicles is synergy with BEVs to mitigate the carbon abatement difficulties, decreasing up to 34% of the maximum marginal abatement internal investment.
