Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4

Abstract

This research aims to predict roof tile production trends at one of the roof tile companies in Kebumen to assist company management in determining and providing management recommendations for the tile production that occurs. A comparison of Single Moving Average (SMA) and Double Moving Average (DMA) Forecasting methods was used to better accommodate trends in roof tile production data optimally. Where the forecast is presented for several steps ahead, and is equipped with a value measuring the accuracy of the forecast using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), on roof tile production transaction data over 60 months, namely January-December 2019 to January-December 2023 to produce a monthly forecast for predicting roof tile production with n-th ordo 2 and 4. The total sample of training data processed was 1,415,987 records which were roof tile production transaction data, as well as data in January 2024 as test data (to test the accuracy of the forecast). The results of testing the forecast results produced a MAPE calculation of 6.6% for SMA with n-th ordo 2, while for n-th ordo 4 it was 7.2%. The MAPE value for DMA is 6.3% for n-th ordo 2, while for n-th ordo 4 it is 8.2%, which means the accuracy level is very good, namely above 90%. Based on the MAPE results obtained, the DMA method with n-th ordo 2 is a suitable method for carrying out periodic forecasting for roof tile companies in carrying out the production process to maintain stability and avoid unexpected events.

Keywords

• forecasting
• double moving average
• roof tile
• single moving average
• mean absolute percentage error.