Environmental Research Letters (Jan 2022)
Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
- Jose Rafael Guarin,
- Pierre Martre,
- Frank Ewert,
- Heidi Webber,
- Sibylle Dueri,
- Daniel Calderini,
- Matthew Reynolds,
- Gemma Molero,
- Daniel Miralles,
- Guillermo Garcia,
- Gustavo Slafer,
- Francesco Giunta,
- Diego N L Pequeno,
- Tommaso Stella,
- Mukhtar Ahmed,
- Phillip D Alderman,
- Bruno Basso,
- Andres G Berger,
- Marco Bindi,
- Gennady Bracho-Mujica,
- Davide Cammarano,
- Yi Chen,
- Benjamin Dumont,
- Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei,
- Elias Fereres,
- Roberto Ferrise,
- Thomas Gaiser,
- Yujing Gao,
- Margarita Garcia-Vila,
- Sebastian Gayler,
- Zvi Hochman,
- Gerrit Hoogenboom,
- Leslie A Hunt,
- Kurt C Kersebaum,
- Claas Nendel,
- Jørgen E Olesen,
- Taru Palosuo,
- Eckart Priesack,
- Johannes W M Pullens,
- Alfredo Rodríguez,
- Reimund P Rötter,
- Margarita Ruiz Ramos,
- Mikhail A Semenov,
- Nimai Senapati,
- Stefan Siebert,
- Amit Kumar Srivastava,
- Claudio Stöckle,
- Iwan Supit,
- Fulu Tao,
- Peter Thorburn,
- Enli Wang,
- Tobias Karl David Weber,
- Liujun Xiao,
- Zhao Zhang,
- Chuang Zhao,
- Jin Zhao,
- Zhigan Zhao,
- Yan Zhu,
- Senthold Asseng
Affiliations
- Jose Rafael Guarin
- ORCiD
- Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America; Current affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of America; Current affiliation: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York, NY, United States of America
- Pierre Martre
- LEPSE, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier SupAgro , Montpellier, France
- Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany
- Heidi Webber
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany
- Sibylle Dueri
- LEPSE, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier SupAgro , Montpellier, France
- Daniel Calderini
- Institute of Plant Production and Protection, Austral University of Chile , Valdivia, Chile
- Matthew Reynolds
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) , Mexico DF, Mexico
- Gemma Molero
- KWS , Lille, France
- Daniel Miralles
- Department of Plant Production, University of Buenos Aires, IFEVA-CONICET , Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Guillermo Garcia
- Department of Plant Production, University of Buenos Aires, IFEVA-CONICET , Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Gustavo Slafer
- Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida—AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Lleida, Spain; and ICREA, Catalonian Institution for Research and Advanced Studies , Barcelona, Spain
- Francesco Giunta
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari , Sassari, Italy
- Diego N L Pequeno
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) , Mexico DF, Mexico
- Tommaso Stella
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany
- Mukhtar Ahmed
- ORCiD
- Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University , Rawalpindi, Pakistan; Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences , Umeå, Sweden
- Phillip D Alderman
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University , Stillwater, OK, United States of America
- Bruno Basso
- ORCiD
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI, United States of America; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI, United States of America
- Andres G Berger
- National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA) , Colonia, Uruguay
- Marco Bindi
- Department of AGRIculture, food, environment and forestry (DAGRI), Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence , Florence, Italy
- Gennady Bracho-Mujica
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany
- Davide Cammarano
- Department of Agronomy, Purdue University , West Lafayette, IN, United States of America
- Yi Chen
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Benjamin Dumont
- Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege , Gembloux, Belgium
- Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
- ORCiD
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany
- Elias Fereres
- IAS-CSIC DAUCO, University of Cordoba , Cordoba, Spain
- Roberto Ferrise
- Department of AGRIculture, food, environment and forestry (DAGRI), Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence , Florence, Italy
- Thomas Gaiser
- ORCiD
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany
- Yujing Gao
- Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America
- Margarita Garcia-Vila
- ORCiD
- IAS-CSIC DAUCO, University of Cordoba , Cordoba, Spain
- Sebastian Gayler
- ORCiD
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim , Stuttgart, Germany
- Zvi Hochman
- ORCiD
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America; Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America
- Leslie A Hunt
- Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph , Guelph, Ontario, Canada
- Kurt C Kersebaum
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany; Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany; Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic , Brno, Czech Republic
- Claas Nendel
- ORCiD
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany; Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic , Brno, Czech Republic; Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam , Potsdam, Germany
- Jørgen E Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University , Tjele, Denmark
- Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) , Helsinki, Finland
- Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health , Neuherberg, Germany
- Johannes W M Pullens
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University , Tjele, Denmark
- Alfredo Rodríguez
- CEIGRAM, Technic University of Madrid , Madrid, Spain; Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, University of Castilla-La Mancha , Toledo, Spain
- Reimund P Rötter
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany; Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany
- Margarita Ruiz Ramos
- CEIGRAM, Technic University of Madrid , Madrid, Spain
- Mikhail A Semenov
- Rothamsted Research , Harpenden AL5 2JQ, United Kingdom
- Nimai Senapati
- ORCiD
- Rothamsted Research , Harpenden AL5 2JQ, United Kingdom
- Stefan Siebert
- ORCiD
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany
- Amit Kumar Srivastava
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany
- Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University , Pullman, WA, United States of America
- Iwan Supit
- Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University , Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Fulu Tao
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) , Helsinki, Finland
- Peter Thorburn
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- Tobias Karl David Weber
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim , Stuttgart, Germany; Current affiliation: Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Organic Soil Sciences, University of Kassel , Kassel, Germany
- Liujun Xiao
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University , Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
- Zhao Zhang
- ORCiD
- State Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Chuang Zhao
- ORCiD
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Jin Zhao
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University , Tjele, Denmark; College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Zhigan Zhao
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia; Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
- Senthold Asseng
- Department of Life Science Engineering, Digital Agriculture, Technical University of Munich , Freising, Germany
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 17,
no. 12
p. 124045
Abstract
Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
Keywords
- yield increase
- radiation use efficiency
- wheat potential yield
- crop model ensemble
- global food security
