Years lost due to disability for typhoid fever related to increased temperature under climate change scenarios and population changing projected burden of diseases

Abstract

Background & Aim: This study aimed to estimate and project the current and future disability burden of typhoid fever in Iran associated with climate and population to provide best policies for climate change adaptation. Methods & Materials: Years lost due to disabilities (YLDs) were measured as burden estimation in this study. The temperature was selected as climate variable. Future temperature rising (projected for 2030 and 2050) used according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. Typhoid fever incidence in 2010 applied as the baseline data for YLDs calculation. The previous published regression models were considered for YLDs’ future projections. Furthermore, the future demographic change was included for YLDs calculation. Results: Compared with the YLDs in 2010, increasing temperature and demographic change may lead to a 5.5-9% increase in the YLDs by 2030 and a 13.7-22% increase by 2050 if other factors remain constant. The highest YLDs was projected for > 45 years old (56.3%) in 2050 under temperature rising and population change scenario. Conclusion: Climate change and aging may impact on burden of typhoid fever in the future. Adaptive strategies should be considered to prevent and reduce the health burden of climate change.

Keywords

• typhoid fever
• climate change
• years lost due to disability
• aging