Prediction for Arrival Time and Parameters of Corotation Interaction Regions using Earth–Mars Correlated Events from Tianwen-1, MAVEN, and Wind Observations

Abstract

Using the Stream Interaction Regions list from the Tianwen-1/Mars Orbiter Magnetometer (MOMAG) data between 2021 November and 2021 December and from Wind observations, we present an accurate prediction for the arrival time and in situ parameters of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) when the Earth and Mars have large longitudinal separations. Since CIRs were detected earlier at Earth than at Mars during the period examined, we employ Earth-based CIR detections for predicting CIR observations at Mars. The arrival time is calculated by the Parker spiral model under the assumption of steady corotation of the Sun and coronal holes, while the in situ parameters are derived from Wind data through radial dependent scaling laws. The CIR prediction results are compared to the actual observations obtained from the MOMAG and Mars Ion and Neutral Particle Analyzer instruments onboard Tianwen-1, as well as the Magnetometer and Solar Wind Ion Analyzer instruments onboard MAVEN. The predicted arrival time is close to the observed values with relative errors less than 10%, and the expected in situ data show a good consistency with the Martian measurements. The comparison results indicate that the prediction method has good performance and will be helpful for comparative analysis with Tianwen-1 observations at Mars in the future.

Keywords

• Space weather
• Heliosphere