DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN SYRIA

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of agricultural output in Syria, 1980-2010. The Johansen cointegration test results indicate that agricultural outputs are positively related to the capital, food exports, expenditure and arable land, and negatively related to the oil price. Arable land has the biggest effect on agricultural outputs. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional short-run causality relationships between capital, food exports, expenditure, arable land and agricultural outputs, and unidirectional short-run causality relationship running from oil price to agricultural outputs. There are also unidirectional long-run causality relationships moving from agricultural outputs to gross fixed capital formation of agriculture, oil price, food exports and arable land. However, there is no long-run causality relationships between final consumption expenditure and agricultural outputs. The result indicates that it is important to speed up the land reclamation process and encourage the investment in the agricultural sector.

Keywords

• Syria
• agricultural output
• VAR
• cointegration test
• Granger causality test