Modeling the Pattern of Water Consumption Expenditures in Rural and Urban Households in Iran using Random Forest Algorithm

Abstract

The critical situation of water and its demand growth in Iran as well as the destruction and improper exploitation of groundwater resources with drought continuity have caused the management of water demand to become an important concern in the country's policies in all sectors, including the household sector. Without identifying the influential factors and their importance in the pattern of household water consumption, planning and implementation of effective policies are impossible. This study identifies socio-economic factors affecting water demand and determine their degree of importance in the pattern of household water consumption. Due to the impossibility of specifying the accurate mathematical relationships between these factors and water consumption, this study used the random forest algorithm to determine the most important factors. Also, because of the differences in the lifestyle and cultures of rural and urban households, these two groups have been studied separately. Finally, according to the obtained results, 17 important factors were determined in three different levels of influence. The variables of household income, house size, and age of the household’s head were identified as the three most important quantitative variables affecting both urban and rural household consumption, respectively. Among the qualitative variables, the use of evaporative cooler was recognized as the most important effective variable. Other factors were ranked in order of effectiveness.

Keywords

• water consumption
• random forest algorithm
• socio-economic factors