Redai dili (Aug 2023)
Factors Influencing the Evolution of Rural Settlements Based on MGWR: A Case Study of Haikou City
Abstract
The factors influencing the spatial evolution of rural settlements have always been the focus of rural geography. China's rural settlement space has undergone dramatic changes driven by rapid urbanization in recent decades. However, the spatial heterogeneity and scale effects of the factors influencing the spatial evolution of rural settlements have not attracted widespread attention and in-depth research from scholars. Taking Haikou City as a case example, this study examined the spatial heterogeneity of the factors influencing the spatial evolution of rural settlements from 2002 to 2020 using the remote sensing image visual interpretation method, spatial analysis technology of Geographic Information System (GIS), and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression model. The study showed that: (1) The area of rural settlements in Haikou City has increased by 53.5% in the past 20 years, and the per capita area has grown from 120.59 square meters per person to 166.79 square meters per person, with the characteristics of expansion in the north and contraction in the south, a scattered settlement landscape, and obvious spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, the distribution and area changes of rural settlements showed a significant positive spatial agglomeration pattern. (2) The influences of various factors have obvious differences on spatial non-stationarity and scale effects with bandwidths ranging from 69 to 10 482. The effects of four factors, location, distance to road, distance to real estate development area, and elevation, on the spatial evolution of rural settlements are at the local scale. The effects of two factors, urbanization rate and slope, are at the mesoscale, and the effects of five factors, distance to the central city, population change rate, distance to river, road network density, and accessibility of tourist resource points, are at the global scale. Among these, the spatial evolution of rural settlements is most sensitive to location. (3) Factors such as the impetus of the central city and the development of real estate have the most important impact on the spatial evolution of rural settlements. In addition, settlements are increasingly expanding to areas closer to the central city, closer to real estate development zones, and closer to areas with lower altitudes, smaller slopes, higher levels of urbanization, and higher densities of road network. However, factors such as distance to river, population change rate, and accessibility of tourist resource points have no significant effects on the evolution of rural settlements. (4) Changing the development concepts led by the real estate industry and strictly implementing the "One household, one house" system are important measures to curb the disorderly expansion of rural settlements in Haikou City effectively.
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