Operational Risk Assessment of Check Dams in Ningxia Considering the Impact of Extreme Precipitation in the Future

Abstract

To analyze the operation risk of check dams under extreme precipitation conditions, taking Ningxia area as an example, this paper carried out a risk assessment of check dams under extreme precipitation conditions in Ningxia through data collection, hydrological statistics, numerical simulation, and other methods. The conclusions are the following: (1) By the end of 2020, about 40% of the silt reservoir capacity of check dams in various water and soil conservation zones in Ningxia has been accumulated. During 1966–2020, the extreme precipitation and frequency of extreme precipitation in Ningxia increased while the intensity of extreme precipitation decreased. The extreme precipitation in Ningxia increased year by year and lasted longer. (2) Under two future scenarios of RCP4.5 (the full name of RCP is Representative Concentration Pathway) and RCP8.5, the extreme precipitation threshold in Ningxia is gradually decreasing from south to north. Extreme precipitation in the future will bring high risk to the operation of check dams in Ningxia. The results of this paper can provide a scientific basis for the operation and management of check dams in Ningxia.

Keywords

• extreme precipitation
• Ningxia check dams
• operational risk assessment
• climate model