Deterministic and probabilistic regularities underlying risky choices are acquired in a changing decision context

Abstract

Abstract Predictions supporting risky decisions could become unreliable when outcome probabilities temporarily change, making adaptation more challenging. Therefore, this study investigated whether sensitivity to the temporal structure in outcome probabilities can develop and remain persistent in a changing decision environment. In a variant of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task with 90 balloons, outcomes (rewards or balloon bursts) were predictable in the task’s first and final 30 balloons and unpredictable in the middle 30 balloons. The temporal regularity underlying the predictable outcomes differed across three experimental conditions. In the deterministic condition, a repeating three-element sequence dictated the maximum number of pumps before a balloon burst. In the probabilistic condition, a single probabilistic regularity ensured that burst probability increased as a function of pumps. In the hybrid condition, a repeating sequence of three different probabilistic regularities increased burst probabilities. In every condition, the regularity was absent in the middle 30 balloons. Participants were not informed about the presence or absence of the regularity. Sensitivity to both the deterministic and hybrid regularities emerged and influenced risk taking. Unpredictable outcomes of the middle phase did not deteriorate this sensitivity. In conclusion, humans can adapt their risky choices in a changing decision environment by exploiting the statistical structure that controls how the environment changes.