Овощи России (Dec 2024)
Geoeconomic modelling: southwestern trend of vegetable growing in Russia
Abstract
Relevance. Modern globalization, internationalization, regional competitive differentiation actualize geoeconomic modeling methods for geopolitical planning, management and control. The novelty of the proposed solutions is the proposed concept, based on the translation of the ideas of theoretical mechanics into economics.Methodology. Considering the annual values of statistical indicators of territorial concentrates as a system of geographically distributed objects (subjects of the Russian Federation), it is possible to determine the geographic barycenter. Knowing the values of the geocoordinates of the barycenter, it is possible to determine the tendencies and trend of the barycenter movement as an indicator of the dynamics of the system under consideration through the analysis of the dynamics of these coordinates. Based on Russtat data on the annual gross harvest of agricultural crops (vegetables), population by constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 1991-2021, data on the coordinates of the administrative centers of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the values of the geographic coordinates of the barycenter of vegetable growing in Russia were calculated.Results. For 2021, the geographic coordinates of the barycenter of vegetable growing in Russia are 50.30° N and 49.49° E with an average regional value with an average regional annual vegetable har-vest of 1722.52 million centners/year and fluctuations in the coordinates of the barycenter in the zone of 3-4 geographic degrees or three hundred territorial kilometers with a pronounced south-west trend Analysis of the dynamics of the barycenter for the period 1991-2021. will allow to reveal a slight shift of the vegetable growing barycenter to the south by 3.5 degrees with an increase in the average regional vegetable harvest by 124.11 million centners per year for each degree (or the all-Russian by more than 9,500 million centners per year for each degree to the south), a slight shift of the vegetable growing barycenter to the west by 4.5 degrees with an increase in the average regional vegetable har-vest by 86.5 million centners per year per degree (or the All-Russian by more than 6,660 million cent-ners per year for each degree to the west). For the period 1991-2021, two opposite trends in the devel-opment of vegetable growing are distinguished. In the period from 1991 to 2000, the movement of the coordinate of the vegetable growing barycenter went in the direction of the northeast of Russia, in the period 2000 to 2021 -- on the contrary, to the southwest.The conclusion is made about the existence of a relationship between the development of vegetable growing and the geopolitics of Russia in the period under review. The obtained method and results can be used in strategic state management of agricultural production in Russia.
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