Potential impact of climate change on Nearctic leafhopper distribution and richness in North America

Abstract

Abstract Climate change significantly contributes to shifts in the geographical range of pests and diseases. Leafhoppers (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae), known vectors of phytoplasmas pathogens, are linked to the transmission of more than 600 diseases affecting a thousand plant species worldwide. Despite this, the potential effects of climate change on leafhopper vectors of phytoplasmas remain a critical knowledge gap. To address this gap, our study investigated the potential impact of climate change on 14 species of Nearctic leafhoppers previously associated with phytoplasma-related diseases. Using the MaxEnt species distribution algorithm and other ecological niche modeling techniques, we assessed (i) the expected species richness under current climate conditions and four future scenarios and (ii) the environmental niche similarity among these species across these scenarios. Our projections suggest that the eastern region of North America holds the potential for the highest species richness, a trend expected to persist across all future scenarios, gradually expanding eastward. Notably, our findings indicate the increasing suitability of northern Canada for more species. Network analysis further revealed a remarkable similarity in environmental niches among most leafhopper species. Moreover, across the four future scenarios, there is a tendency for an increase in this similarity. Altogether, our study underscores the potential persistent presence of Nearctic leafhoppers in their current habitats while pointing to a shift toward northern North America in future scenarios. These findings have significant implications for sustainable pest management practices, prompting a necessary discussion on strategies to mitigate climate change and pest migration’s impact on agricultural systems.