Integration models of demand forecasting and inventory control for coconut sugar using the ARIMA and EOQ modification methods

Abstract

Inventory control is critical because the inability to overcome inventory problems causes unpreparedness to meet consumer demand. MSMEs Bekawan Agro Coconut Sugar, independently around 35% -70%, cannot meet consumers' demand for coconut sugar, so an inventory control model is needed. Inventory control models must integrate with demand forecasting as an inventory control input. This study aims to integrate the demand fore­casting model with the inventory control model. The method used for demand forecasting is ARIMA. The inventory control model uses a modi­fied EOQ hybrid method because coconut sugar products have a shelf life; they also use coconut sap as raw material, which must be processed to prevent fermentation. The research results show that demand forecasting for one year ahead is a total of 10,310.82 Kilograms with an economic lot size of 120 Kilograms and a reorder point when the inventory position is 30 Kilograms. Daily production of 30 kilograms requires 210 litres of coconut sap/per day. The amount of sap needed requires 105 coconut trees / per day. Arrival time of coconut sugar at the storage warehouse every five days. The resulting model can be a solution for sustainable MSMEs.

Keywords

• coconut sugar
• demand forecasting
• inventory control
• modified arima
• modified eoq