Mortality burden attributable to exceptional PM2.5 air pollution events in Australian cities: A health impact assessment
Lucas Hertzog,
Geoffrey G. Morgan,
Cassandra Yuen,
Karthik Gopi,
Gavin F. Pereira,
Fay H. Johnston,
Martin Cope,
Timothy B. Chaston,
Aditya Vyas,
Sotiris Vardoulakis,
Ivan C. Hanigan
Affiliations
Lucas Hertzog
Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, WA, 6102, Australia; WHO Collaborating Centre for Climate Change and Health Impact Assessment, WA, 6102, Australia; Healthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Australia; Corresponding author. Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, WA, 6102, Australia.
Geoffrey G. Morgan
Healthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, 2006, Australia; Centre for Safe Air, NHMRC CRE, Australia; University Centre for Rural Health, University of Sydney, Lismore, NSW, 2480, Australia
Cassandra Yuen
Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, WA, 6102, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, 2006, Australia
Karthik Gopi
School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, 2006, Australia; University Centre for Rural Health, University of Sydney, Lismore, NSW, 2480, Australia
Gavin F. Pereira
Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, WA, 6102, Australia; EnAble Institute, Curtin University, WA, 6102, Australia
Fay H. Johnston
Centre for Safe Air, NHMRC CRE, Australia; Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Martin Cope
CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Melbourne, Australia
Timothy B. Chaston
Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Victoria, Melbourne, Australia
Aditya Vyas
Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, WA, 6102, Australia; WHO Collaborating Centre for Climate Change and Health Impact Assessment, WA, 6102, Australia
Sotiris Vardoulakis
Healthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Australia; National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2061, Australia
Ivan C. Hanigan
Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, WA, 6102, Australia; WHO Collaborating Centre for Climate Change and Health Impact Assessment, WA, 6102, Australia; Healthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Australia; Centre for Safe Air, NHMRC CRE, Australia
Background: People living in Australian cities face increased mortality risks from exposure to extreme air pollution events due to bushfires and dust storms. However, the burden of mortality attributable to exceptional PM2.5 levels has not been well characterised. We assessed the burden of mortality due to PM2.5 pollution events in Australian capital cities between 2001 and 2020. Methods: For this health impact assessment, we obtained data on daily counts of deaths for all non-accidental causes and ages from the Australian National Vital Statistics Register. Daily concentrations of PM2.5 were estimated at a 5 km grid cell, using a Random Forest statistical model of data from air pollution monitoring sites combined with a range of satellite and land use-related data. We calculated the exceptional PM2.5 levels for each extreme pollution exposure day using the deviation from a seasonal and trend loess decomposition model. The burden of mortality was examined using a relative risk concentration-response function suggested in the literature. Findings: Over the 20-year study period, we estimated 1454 (95 % CI 987, 1920) deaths in the major Australian cities attributable to exceptional PM2.5 exposure levels. The mortality burden due to PM2.5 exposure on extreme pollution days was considerable. Variations were observed across Australia. Despite relatively low daily PM2.5 levels compared to global averages, all Australian cities have extreme pollution exposure days, with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the World Health Organisation Air Quality Guideline standard for 24-h exposure. Our analysis results indicate that nearly one-third of deaths from extreme air pollution exposure can be prevented with a 5 % reduction in PM2.5 levels on days with exceptional pollution. Interpretation: Exposure to exceptional PM2.5 events was associated with an increased mortality burden in Australia's cities. Policies and coordinated action are needed to manage the health risks of extreme air pollution events due to bushfires and dust storms under climate change.
