Impacts of Human Activity and Climate Change on the Suitable Habitats for <i>Xanthium spinosum</i> in China
Yabin Liu,
Yuyu Li,
Rui Wang,
Lizhu Guo,
Yu Ji,
Yihao Chen,
Lifen Hao,
Kejian Lin
Affiliations
Yabin Liu
Key Laboratory of Agri-Products Quality and Biosafety, Ministry of Education, Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management on Crops, School of Plant Protection, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China
Yuyu Li
Key Laboratory of Biohazard Monitoring and Green Prevention and Control for Artificial Grassland, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Grassland Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Hohhot 010019, China
Rui Wang
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
Lizhu Guo
Key Laboratory of Biohazard Monitoring and Green Prevention and Control for Artificial Grassland, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Grassland Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Hohhot 010019, China
Yu Ji
Key Laboratory of Biohazard Monitoring and Green Prevention and Control for Artificial Grassland, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Grassland Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Hohhot 010019, China
Yihao Chen
Key Laboratory of Biohazard Monitoring and Green Prevention and Control for Artificial Grassland, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Grassland Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Hohhot 010019, China
Lifen Hao
Key Laboratory of Biohazard Monitoring and Green Prevention and Control for Artificial Grassland, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Grassland Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Hohhot 010019, China
Kejian Lin
Key Laboratory of Biohazard Monitoring and Green Prevention and Control for Artificial Grassland, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Grassland Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Hohhot 010019, China
Xanthium spinosum (X. spinosum) is a highly invasive weed native to South America and distributed in 17 provinces (municipalities) of China. It has severely negative influences on ecosystems, agriculture, and husbandry. However, few studies have reported on the impact of human activity and climate change on the future distribution and centroid shift of X. spinosum. This study aimed to investigate the potential geological distribution of X. spinosum in China, as well as the distribution pattern, centroid shift, and key environmental factors influencing its distribution, under four future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85) based on the biomod2-integrated model. The results indicated that the suitable habitats for X. spinosum would expand in the future, mainly in Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and the plateau regions (e.g., Xinjiang and Xizang). Under future climate scenarios, the centroid would shift toward the northwest or northeast part of China, with the SSP2-45-2050s scenario showing the maximum shift distance (161.990 km). Additionally, the key environmental variables influencing the distribution of X. spinosum, including human impact index, bio5, bio7, and bio12, were determined, revealing that most of them were related to human activities, temperature, and precipitation. This study enhances the understanding of the influence of human activity and climate change on the geographic range of X. spinosum. It provides references for early warning and management in the control of X. spinosum.
