Heliyon (Oct 2024)
Drought vulnerability assessment and its impact on crop production and livelihood of people: An empirical analysis of Barind Tract
Abstract
North-Western section of Bangladesh is experiencing a protracted decrease in precipitation, irregular rainfall, and the depletion of ground water, which results in water scarcity and extreme dry weather that impedes the production of agricultural commodities and threatens the people's way of life. Analyzing the precipitation deficit and ground water deficit, along with vegetation cover, temperature condition, and the condition of the vegetation is a crucial component of drought vulnerability assessment. Rajshahi Zilla, a region of Bangladesh located in the middle of the Barind tract, is experiencing a severe water shortage. The irregular rainfall, decrease in rainfall, prolonged absence of rainfall and ground water depletion results in drought. This study aims to access the vulnerability of drought by analyzing precipitation rates, ground water depletion levels, temperature condition, vegetation condition and the vegetative droughts to find out the severe condition of droughts and the severe effects of this in the livelihoods of the farmers and their crop production practices. In this case the study focuses on determining NDVI, NDWI, NDMI, VCI, TCI, and VHI. The VHI results show a significant increase in extreme drought conditions from 2013 (4 %) to 2021 (7 %). By conducting a few questionnaire surveys and Focus Group Discussion the present situation of crop production and the livelihoods of people has been analyzed. Almost 18.3 % of farmers have made a permanent move away from agriculture, and 80 % of permanently relocated farmers report an improvement in their quality of life. Nearly 60 % of farmers believe that the construction of deep ditches has enhanced their crop yield. Once again, more than 20 % are in the same predicament as previously, with over 19 % reporting that deep irrigation has lowered agricultural yield. Comprehending the potential consequences of drought will enable planners and decision-makers to implement mitigation measures aimed at improving the communities' ability to manage drought risk. After analyzing data, it has been found that Rajshahi is facing a critical drought problem, which has led to water scarcity, severely affecting agricultural production and livelihoods.
