Exploring determinants of travel-mode choice during the covid-19 pandemic outbreak: A case study of Islamabad, Pakistan

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak is changing the patterns in travel activity for key destinations.Travel behavior during the pandemic has not been investigated adequately, specifically in developing countries. A sound understanding of travel-mode choice determinants is needed to design interventions to slow down and prevent the spread of the COVID-19 disease. This study explores travel-mode choice determinants for three key destinations, the workplace, market, and hospital, in Islamabad, Pakistan, during the COVID-19 disease outbreak. This study used a primary dataset of 163 observations and applied the multinomial logit (MNL) regression to analyze it. The survey results highlighted that the proportion of public transport mode was marginal for the three key destinations because public transport was closed during the lockdown, except for the metro bus. The streamlined model estimation results implied that the family-size factor had no relationship with the travel-mode choice. Males were most likely to travel to the workplace and market by 2&3 wheelers and least likely to travel by car. Females, unemployedpersons, and students are likely to stay at home. Married people were more likely than single people to travel to the workplace and hospital by car. Self-employed people and state officials/public servants were most likely to go to the market by car. People living in towns/rural areas and cities were likely to travel by motorcycle/rickshaw and car, respectively. People living farther than 5 km from the workplace were most likely to travel by car, followed by motorcycle. This study is important for designing strategies to curb the pandemic with sustainable mobility during the lockdown.

Keywords

• travel behavior
• discrete choice
• coronavirus
• transport policy
• islamabad